Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 60.439773 67.607551 75.817667 86.044198 98.626347 113.859614 134.120644
2025-01-19 48.576943 57.018779 67.500538 81.859003 101.695644 129.316001 173.207766
2025-01-26 45.026769 54.822850 67.778732 86.986190 116.419989 163.426682 254.491164
2025-02-02 42.670790 53.495107 68.568883 92.486831 132.794637 206.662452 386.566491
2025-02-09 39.774779 50.899487 66.974745 93.806619 142.542288 243.014798 550.199643
2025-02-16 36.927096 47.971853 64.375634 92.837750 147.724649 272.902357 752.752874
2025-02-23 34.508564 45.388292 61.919937 91.566415 151.842155 303.006064 1045.780456
2025-03-02 32.213740 42.763915 59.073117 89.072588 152.678026 325.415727 1409.389005
2025-03-09 30.410272 40.730261 56.951562 87.543994 155.215539 355.274263 2071.257010
2025-03-16 28.319672 38.098631 53.598374 83.202888 150.143400 357.326943 2527.496657
2025-03-23 27.877642 38.008633 54.478993 87.194855 166.529597 453.442715 8450.723834
2025-03-30 26.823508 36.858909 53.420412 87.104783 172.443591 515.593462 39076.624842
2025-04-06 25.481320 35.216541 51.461684 85.093244 173.211015 559.597453 NaN
2025-04-13 23.937088 33.166311 48.642782 80.937273 166.850644 559.301687 NaN
2025-04-20 23.795819 33.410610 49.955305 85.971185 190.199648 800.256168 NaN
2025-04-27 23.669359 33.662922 51.300367 91.369207 218.217458 1237.740287 NaN
2025-05-04 23.062191 33.049082 50.942570 92.663849 232.536734 1665.979542 NaN
2025-05-11 22.260712 32.049950 49.753986 91.713459 237.706857 2030.036205 NaN
2025-05-18 21.489516 31.062921 48.515441 90.466206 241.293210 2456.082715 NaN
2025-05-25 20.652433 29.920233 46.892436 88.019067 238.729398 2720.354791 NaN
2025-06-01 19.964216 29.011084 45.680499 86.518726 240.159714 3248.455083 NaN
2025-06-08 19.048971 27.663083 43.514258 82.256330 227.182891 2955.753457 NaN
2025-06-15 18.964343 27.792985 44.342970 86.176002 256.243609 6709.938928 NaN